Multi-measure estimation of navigation safety for marine area

• Grinyak V.M.

  V. M. Grinyak. Vladivostok State University of Economics and Service. Vladivostok. Russia

• Ivanenko Yu.S.

  Yu. S. Ivanenko. Far Eastern Federal University. Vladivostok. Russia

• A. V. Shulenina. Far Eastern Federal University. Vladivostok. Russia

The paper is devoted to the problem of ensuring the safe movement of ships. The problem of assessing the safety of a traffic pattern implemented in a specific water area is considered. Five different safety metrics are introduced. The first metric – “traffic intensity” – the traditionally used traffic density estimate, is calculated as the number of vessels passing through a particular section of the water area per unit time. It is supplemented by the metrics “intensity plus speed” (second)  and  “intensity  plus  size  of  ships”  (third).  When  calculating  them,  respectively,  the speed of the vessels and their length, which determine the "weight" of each vessel, are taken into account. The fourth metric – “stability of traffic parameters” – takes into account the nature of the movement of ships in terms of the regularity of their courses and speeds. The paper discusses various options for the metric, to illustrate the simplest of them is implemented - an estimate of the standard deviation of the ship's course. The fifth metric – “traffic saturation” – characterizes the density of movement of ships in terms of the possibility of their maneuvers. The metric appeals to the traditional model representations of the collective motion parameters of the vessels in the form of a “speed-course” diagram and makes it possible to indirectly assess the difficulty of decision-making by skippers and the emotional burden on traffic participants. In the discussion of the results of the work, the option of integrating the five proposed metrics in the form of a system of rules giving an integrated assessment of traffic safety in a particular section of the water area is considered. The work is accompanied by the results of calculations of the proposed metrics on real data on the movement of ships in the Tokyo Bay and their discussion. It is shown that the proposed system of metrics allows you to create a systematic idea of the degree of danger of traffic implemented in the water area.
Keywords: marine safety; traffic intensity; ship trajectory; speed; course; traffic area; AIS.